Long Tail Fat and Thin

Posted on October 3, 2007
Filed Under Markets |

Inevitably as the long tail concept starts getting famous in the mainstream, the pendulum reverses its swing for a counterpoint. As always, both sides of the fence are valuable, but the argument produces this lovely quote:

It’s the short fat part of the tail that matters.

So many startups have business plans that predict riches can be found in the long tail of commerce. Yet their first target should be the fat, high margin sector of any commercial market. You can always slide down the value chain over time and monetize the long tail. -imho: Too Much Long Tail . . .

A filmmaker finds that the long tail stretches way too thin for him, but it sounds like an inappropriate marketing plan rather than a busted market:

Your Long Tail theory is a basic and profound truth that I happily embrace AS A CONSUMER. But as a producer and creator of Long Tail content it is basically spelling out my doom. Other than your book examples which are still basically about VERY LARGE entities and aggregators, I am finding very few self supporting examples of independent Long Tail producers. I’m left with a bad taste in my mouth as I see more and more that the “old school” of thought, economy and media will continue to endure and dominate until…….I don’t know when, because I’m not seeing a change in the economics of selling enough to support yourself. - The Long Tail: An independent filmmaker’s lament

Indeed as Nicholas Carr picks up the story, a reader comments:

Is anybody arguing that you can produce small numbers of “x” and compete with those who produce, or aggregate, large numbers of “x?” I thought the whole argument was that aggregating long tail items was what could compete with the head.

It doesn’t sound like this guy is either aggregating, or producing in the quantity that would be relevant to the long tail concept. - A cautionary tale [comments]

The crux of long tail in statistics and in today’s usage in commerce is that the whole of the long tail can equal or better the whole of that “short fat part”. In other words, treating customers as unique niches of one is both technically possible nowadays and as valuable over the aggregate as shooting for market dominance in a mass-appeal way. You still have to have sound marketing and business plans. Nothing is magic.

Zoli Erdos has found an example of how to do it right however, in today’s new markets.

Meet Dr. Jay Parkinson, MD. Not in his office - your home, or online. Sign up on the web, make appointments via a Google Calendar, receive housecalls, have him help manage specialist, x-ray, lab, pharmacy costs, all for $500 annually - no insurance required.

Browsing through his site feels a lot more like surfing a Web 2.0 service than a physician’s site. He blogs, too, and is becoming somewhat of a celebrity.

If this is not Health 2.0, I don’t know what is. Is THIS Health 2.0?

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